ARC-001 - Minimal Evidence

Status: Working draft

Scenario

Breaking news reports that a passenger aircraft crashed shortly after takeoff. No other verified information is available.

Purpose

Test whether Framework Engineering preserves uncertainty under sparse evidence.

Expected Good Behavior

• Identify what is known.
• Explicitly identify what is unknown.
• Avoid premature origin assignment.
• Avoid speculative probability estimates.
• Defer causal hypotheses pending evidence.

Known

• Aircraft crashed.
• Crash occurred shortly after takeoff.

Unknown

• Aircraft type
• Weather
• Mechanical condition
• Crew actions
• Air traffic control
• Bird strike
• Fuel status
• Fire
• Structural failure
• Sabotage
• Maintenance history

Manifestation

• Loss of aircraft.

Origin Network

Undetermined.

Reason

Multiple plausible origin categories exist, but none can be prioritized using the available evidence.

Control Points

None specific yet.

Appropriate Action

Proceed with standard accident investigation and evidence preservation.

Confidence

Very Low.

Result

PASS.

Finding

Framework Engineering avoided false certainty and preserved uncertainty.

Calibration Behavior

Confidence Calibration.