Hypotheses

Candidate principle

A framework should expose uncertainty and preserve the lineage connecting evidence, interpretation, conclusions, and recommended actions.

H1 — Value

Explicit uncertainty and evidence lineage improve diagnostic accuracy, missing-information identification, resistance to unsupported conclusions, next-action value, and revision readiness.

H2 — Complexity

They add process overhead without meaningful diagnostic improvement.

H3 — Conditional value

They help primarily when evidence is incomplete or conflicting, consequences are significant, revision is expected, or work is handed off. They may add little value for a simple, low-risk problem.

H4 — Harm

They may cause excessive caution, obscure conclusions, increase length, create false precision, slow decisions, or reward procedural compliance over useful reasoning.

The evaluation and adversarial review must actively seek evidence for every hypothesis.