Confidence Update Guide

Use qualitative confidence:

• Very Low
• Low
• Low-Moderate
• Moderate
• Moderate-High
• High

Rules

• Do not use High for internal-only evidence.
• Increase confidence only when evidence survives a meaningful test.
• Decrease confidence when predictions fail or competing explanations become stronger.
• Split hypotheses instead of stretching them.
• Retire hypotheses when kill conditions are met repeatedly.