research-document
Surprise Index
Surprise Index
Purpose
Track how much an evidence result differed from prior expectation.
Values
low
Observed result was close to prediction.
medium
Observed result differed materially from expectation but did not overturn the framing of the experiment.
high
Observed result challenged the framing, design assumptions, or leading explanation.
Use
The Surprise Index helps prioritize review attention and follow-up experiment selection.
It does not update confidence by itself.