Hypothesis Lifecycle

1. Proposed

Meaning: A candidate hypothesis has been stated but not yet incorporated into active evidence planning.

Entry Criteria:

• clear statement exists
• rationale exists

Exit Criteria:

• hypothesis is accepted into active tracking or rejected

Required Evidence:

• conceptual rationale only

2. Active

Meaning: The hypothesis is being tracked and has at least one planned or running test.

Entry Criteria:

• kill condition defined
• next test defined
• registry entry exists

Exit Criteria:

• hypothesis is strengthened, weakened, revised, suspended, or retired

Required Evidence:

• at least one meaningful test planned

3. Strengthened

Meaning: Recent evidence increased confidence without fully validating the hypothesis.

Entry Criteria:

• prediction survived a meaningful test

Exit Criteria:

• hypothesis returns to active tracking, is further strengthened, or is weakened

Required Evidence:

• observed support from a meaningful test

4. Weakened

Meaning: Recent evidence reduced confidence or strengthened competing explanations.

Entry Criteria:

• failed prediction
• elevated competing explanation
• upstream dependency weakened

Exit Criteria:

• hypothesis is revised, suspended, retired, or narrowed and retested

Required Evidence:

• concrete contradictory or destabilizing evidence

Rule: A weakened hypothesis should be narrowed before being expanded.

5. Revised

Meaning: The hypothesis has been materially rewritten to fit the evidence better.

Entry Criteria:

• previous wording no longer matches observations well

Exit Criteria:

• revised hypothesis becomes active or is suspended

Required Evidence:

• explicit rationale for revision

6. Suspended

Meaning: The hypothesis is paused because current evidence or infrastructure is insufficient.

Entry Criteria:

• unresolved ambiguity persists
• dependency failure blocks interpretation
• abstraction value is unproven

Exit Criteria:

• new evidence or revised instrument justifies reactivation

Required Evidence:

• documented reason for suspension

7. Retired

Meaning: The hypothesis should no longer guide research decisions.

Entry Criteria:

• kill condition met repeatedly
• repeated failures without compensating evidence

Exit Criteria:

• none, unless a new hypothesis is proposed separately

Required Evidence:

• explicit retirement rationale